medinfoАктуальные проблемы теоретической и клинической медициныActual Problems of Theoretical and Clinical Medicine2790-12892790-1297Казахстанско-Российский медицинский университет10.64854/2790-1289-2026-53-3-03medinfo-1139Research ArticleОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯORIGINAL ARTICLESДИНАМИКА СЕРДЕЧНО-СОСУДИСТЫХ ЗАБОЛЕВАНИЙ И СТРУКТУРНЫЙ ПОТЕНЦИАЛ КАРДИОЛОГИЧЕСКИХ СЛУЖБ В АЛМАТИНСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ: ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ ДЛЯ ПОЛИТИКИ ЗДРАВООХРАНЕНИЯ В СЕЛЬСКОЙ МЕСТНОСТИCARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURAL CAPACITY OF CARDIOLOGY SERVICES IN THE ALMATY REGION: IMPLICATIONS FOR RURAL HEALTH POLICYhttps://orcid.org/0009-0002-4919-9666КасымханА. А.KassymkhanA. A.k.akerke92@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0009-0006-2954-488XИбаковаЖ. О.IbakovaZh. O.ibakova_zhanar@outlook.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3871-8002БурибаеваЖ. К.BuribayevaZh. K.buribaeva.zh@kaznmu.kzhttps://orcid.org/0009-0006-1696-9088НурмухамбетоваБ. Р.NurmukhambetovaB. R.nurmuhambetova.b@kaznmu.kzКазахстанский медицинский университет «ВШОЗ», Казахстан, Алматы НАО «Казахский национальный университет имени аль-Фараби», Казахстан, АлматыКазахстанKazakhstan Medical University «KSPH», Kazakhstan, Almaty NJSC «Al-Farabi Kazakh National University», Kazakhstan, AlmatyKazakhstanНАО «Казахский национальный медицинский университет имени С.Д. Асфендиярова», Казахстан, Алматы АО «Научно-исследовательский институт кардиологии и внутренних болезней», Казахстан, АлматыКазахстанNJSC «Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University», Kazakhstan, Almaty JSC«Scientific Research Institute of Cardiology and Internal Diseases», Kazakhstan, AlmatyKazakhstanНАО «Казахский национальный медицинский университет имени С.Д. Асфендиярова», Казахстан, АлматыКазахстанNJSC «Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University», Kazakhstan, AlmatyKazakhstan202605102026031139Copyright © Касымхан А., Ибакова Ж., Бурибаева Ж., Нурмухамбетова Б., 20262026Касымхан А., Ибакова Ж., Бурибаева Ж., Нурмухамбетова Б.Kassymkhan A., Ibakova Z., Buribayeva Z., Nurmukhambetova B.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://kazrosmedjournal.krmu.edu.kz/jour/article/view/1139Актуальность

Актуальность. Сердечно-сосудистые заболевания остаются значимой проблемой общественного здравоохранения. В преимущественно сельских регионах территориальное распределение ресурсов может ограничивать доступность специализированной помощи.

Цель

Цель. Оценить динамику зарегистрированной заболеваемости сердечно-сосудистыми заболеваниями и структурный потенциал кардиологической службы Алматинской области, а также расчётную потребность во врачах-кардиологах на 2026 год.

Материалы и методы

Материалы и методы. Проведено ретроспективное популяционное аналитическое исследование агрегированных административных данных. Региональная заболеваемость анализировалась за 2019-2024 гг.; межрайонные показатели заболеваемости, кадрового обеспечения и коечного фонда – для 10 территориальных единиц за 2022-2024 гг.; госпитализации городских и сельских жителей – за 2022-2025 гг. Показатели хирургической и высокотехнологичной помощи оценивались за доступные периоды. Использовались описательная статистика, коэффициент вариации и корреляция Пирсона. Потребность в кардиологах рассчитывалась на основе числа диспансерных пациентов в 2024 году, ежегодного прироста и планового соотношения одного кардиолога на 2 000 пациентов.

Результаты

Результаты. Региональная зарегистрированная заболеваемость увеличилась с 2 319,7 до 2 497,3 на 100 000 населения (+7,7%); наибольший рост отмечен по ишемической болезни сердца. В 2024 году средний показатель по 10 территориям составил 5 101,4 на 100 000 населения, коэффициент вариации – 65,3%. Госпитализации сельских жителей увеличились с 1 756 до 2 325 (+32,4%). Ни одна из трёх корреляций не достигла статистической значимости (p > 0,05). Расчётная потребность на 2026 год составила 84 кардиолога при 71 специалисте в 2024 году; чистая расчётная разница – 13 специалистов.

Выводы

Выводы. Выявлены рост зарегистрированной заболеваемости и значительная территориальная вариабельность показателей. Корреляции имеют исследовательский характер. Кадровый прогноз представляет плановую оценку, а не подтверждённый будущий дефицит. Необходима дальнейшая оценка распределения кадров, маршрутизации и доступности специализированной помощи.

Background

Background. Cardiovascular diseases remain a major public health challenge. In predominantly rural regions, the geographical distribution of healthcare resources may limit access to specialist care.

Objective

Objective. To assess trends in registered cardiovascular morbidity and cardiology service capacity in the Almaty Region and estimate cardiologist workforce requirements for 2026.

Materials and methods

Materials and methods. A retrospective population-based analytical study used aggregated administrative data. Regional morbidity was assessed for 2019–2024; territorial morbidity, workforce, and bed capacity for 10 territorial units during 2022–2024; and urban and rural hospitalizations for 2022–2025. Surgical and high-technology care indicators were assessed for the available periods. Analyses included descriptive statistics, coefficients of variation, and Pearson correlations. Workforce requirements were estimated using the 2024 dispensary-registered patient population, annual growth, and a planning assumption of one cardiologist per 2,000 patients.

Results

Results. Regional registered cardiovascular morbidity increased from 2,319.7 to 2,497.3 per 100,000 population (+7.7%), with the largest increase observed for ischemic heart disease. In 2024, the mean rate across the 10 territories was 5,101.4 per 100,000, with a coefficient of variation of 65.3%. Rural hospitalizations increased from 1,756 to 2,325 (+32.4%). None of the three correlations reached statistical significance (p > 0.05). The projected requirement for 2026 was 84 cardiologists compared with 71 reported in 2024, yielding a net model-based gap of 13.

Conclusions

Conclusions. Registered cardiovascular morbidity increased, and substantial territorial variability was observed. Correlations remain exploratory. The workforce projection is a planning estimate rather than a confirmed future shortage. Further assessment of workforce distribution, referral pathways, and access to specialist care is warranted.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.