medinfoАктуальные проблемы теоретической и клинической медициныActual Problems of Theoretical and Clinical Medicine2790-12892790-1297Казахстанско-Российский медицинский университет10.64854/2790-1289-2025-50-4-06medinfo-780Research ArticleОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯORIGINAL ARTICLESСЕЗОННОЕ РАСПРОСТРАНЕНИЕ ОСТРЫХ КИШЕЧНЫХ ИНФЕКЦИЙ И ВЛИЯНИЕ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ ФАКТОРОВ (ТЕМПЕРАТУРЫ И ОСАДКОВ) В КЫЗЫЛОРДИНСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИSEASONAL DISTRIBUTION OF ACUTE INTESTINAL INFECTIONS AND THE IMPACT OF CLIMATIC FACTORS (TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL) IN THE KYZYLORDA REGIONhttps://orcid.org/0009-0005-4036-9333БайсыновН. Б.BaisynovN. B.nurlan050203@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2249-7009ДанияроваА. Б.DaniyarovaA. B.bahitkerei_anar@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0009-0009-2309-7208ИдрисоваА. Н.IdrisovaA. N.Al.idrisova@dsm.gov.kzhttps://orcid.org/0009-0006-1058-3213ЖансугуроваЖ. А.ZhansugurovaZh. A.zh.zhansugurova@dsm.gov.kzhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7231-2041АрыноваГ. А.ArynovaG. A.gulbanu.arynova@mail.ruКазахский национальный университет имени Аль-ФарабиКазахстанAl-Farabi Kazakh National UniversityKazakhstanДепартамент санитарно-эпидемиологического надзора Кызылординской областиКазахстанDepartment of Sanitary and Epidemiological Surveillance of Kyzylorda RegionKazakhstan202530122025041328Copyright © Байсынов Н., Даниярова А., Идрисова А., Жансугурова Ж., Арынова Г., 20262026Байсынов Н., Даниярова А., Идрисова А., Жансугурова Ж., Арынова Г.Baisynov N., Daniyarova A., Idrisova A., Zhansugurova Z., Arynova G.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://kazrosmedjournal.krmu.edu.kz/jour/article/view/780

Заболеваемость острыми кишечными инфекциями имеет сезонный характер и связана с климатическими факторами. В Кызылординской области актуально оценить изменения этих показателей и влияние погодных условий. Исследование позволяет эффективно планировать эпидемиологический надзор и профилактические мероприятия.

Цель исследования

Цель исследования: определить сезонные особенности заболеваемости острыми кишечными инфекциями в Кызылординской области и оценить влияние климатических факторов (температуры и количества осадков) на уровень заболеваемости.

Материалы и методы

Материалы и методы: в исследовании рассмотрено 492 наблюдения. Данные были полными и достоверными. Статистический анализ проведён с использованием критерия Крускала-Уоллиса и различных регрессионных моделей (линейной, квадратичной, экспоненциальной и составной).

Результаты

Результаты: уровень заболеваемости низкий зимой, постепенно увеличивается весной, достигает максимума летом и постепенно снижается осенью. Повышение температуры способствует экспоненциальному росту заболеваемости, тогда как увеличение количества осадков снижает её. Линейная модель показала, что сезонная форма объясняет 95,5 % вариации заболеваемости.

Выводы

Выводы: исследование позволяет эффективно планировать эпидемиологический надзор и профилактические мероприятия и подтверждает значительное влияние сезонного фактора на заболеваемость.

Morbidity from acute intestinal infections exhibits a seasonal pattern and is associated with climatic factors. Assessing changes in these indicators and the influence of weather conditions in the Kyzylorda region is relevant. This study provides a basis for effective epidemiological monitoring and preventive measures.

Objective

Objective: to determine the seasonal characteristics of acute intestinal infections in the Kyzylorda region and to assess the impact of climatic factors (temperature and rainfall) on morbidity.

Materials and methods

Materials and methods: A total of 492 observations were analyzed. The data were complete and reliable. Statistical analysis was performed using the Kruskal-Wallis test and various regression models (linear, quadratic, exponential, and composite).

Results

Results: morbidity levels were low in winter, gradually increased in spring, peaked in summer, and declined gradually in autumn. Rising temperature contributed to an exponential increase in morbidity, while higher rainfall reduced it. The linear model indicated that seasonal variation accounted for 95.5 % of the changes in morbidity.

Conclusion

Conclusion: The study allows effective planning of epidemiological monitoring and preventive measures and confirms the significant impact of seasonal factors on morbidity.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.