TITLE CHANGING PATTERNS OF CHRONIC HEART FAILURE INCIDENCE AND MORTALITY

Relevance: Chronic heart failure remains a major public health challenge worldwide, characterized by increasing incidence and significant morbidity and mortality. Understanding epidemiological trends and changes associated with the COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 period is essential for optimizing healthcare strategies.

Aim: To analyze the dynamics of CHF incidence and mortality in Almaty city and Almaty oblast during the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19/post-COVID-19 periods, and to assess future trends up to 2030.

Methods: A retrospective descriptive and analytical study was conducted using official statistical data from 2012 to 2025. Indicators of CHF incidence and mortality were analyzed in the general population and by sex. The study period was divided into pre-COVID-19 period (2012-2019) and COVID-19/post-COVID-19 period (2020-2025) phases. Absolute and relative changes were calculated, and time series analysis was performed. Forecasting was carried out using linear regression and ARIMA (0,0,0) models.

Results: Chronic heart failure incidence increased in both regions. In Almaty city, the chronic heart failure incidence rate increased from 1,217.3 to 1,552.2 per 100,000 population (+27.5 %), while in Almaty oblast it increased from 145.7 to 755.1 per 100,000 population (+418.4 %). The most pronounced growth was observed after 2019. Incidence increased in both sexes, with a higher growth rate among men. Mortality declined in both regions over the study period. Comparison of the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19/post-COVID-19 periods demonstrated higher incidence rates in both regions, whereas mean mortality rates decreased. Forecasting indicates a continued increase in incidence through 2030, with relatively stable or gradually decreasing mortality.

Conclusion: The study demonstrates a growing burden of chronic heart failure, particularly in Almaty oblast, with increasing incidence and declining mortality. These findings highlight the need for strengthening early detection, preventive strategies, and long-term management of chronic heart failure, especially in regional healthcare settings.

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