SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION OF ACUTE INTESTINAL INFECTIONS AND THE IMPACT OF CLIMATIC FACTORS (TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL) IN THE KYZYLORDA REGION

Morbidity from acute intestinal infections exhibits a seasonal pattern and is associated with climatic factors. Assessing changes in these indicators and the influence of weather conditions in the Kyzylorda region is relevant. This study provides a basis for effective epidemiological monitoring and preventive measures.

Objective: to determine the seasonal characteristics of acute intestinal infections in the Kyzylorda region and to assess the impact of climatic factors (temperature and rainfall) on morbidity.

Materials and methods: A total of 492 observations were analyzed. The data were complete and reliable. Statistical analysis was performed using the Kruskal-Wallis test and various regression models (linear, quadratic, exponential, and composite).

Results: morbidity levels were low in winter, gradually increased in spring, peaked in summer, and declined gradually in autumn. Rising temperature contributed to an exponential increase in morbidity, while higher rainfall reduced it. The linear model indicated that seasonal variation accounted for 95.5 % of the changes in morbidity.

Conclusion: The study allows effective planning of epidemiological monitoring and preventive measures and confirms the significant impact of seasonal factors on morbidity.

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