DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS AND FORECAST: TRENDS IN NATURAL POPULATION INCREASE IN KAZAKHSTAN AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC RESILIENCE OF ALMATY TILL 2030

Relevance. Declining fertility and population aging remain key demographic challenges affecting the sustainability of healthcare systems and long-term socio-economic development.

Objective. To analyze demographic dynamics in the Republic of Kazakhstan and the city of Almaty for 2000-2024 and to forecast births, deaths, and natural population increase for 2025-2030 using time-series analysis methods.

Materials and Methods. Official statistical data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan on births, deaths, and natural population increase were analyzed. Absolute and relative growth rates, as well as growth coefficients, were calculated, and time-series dynamics were assessed. Forecasting was performed using the Brown double-exponential smoothing model for births and ARIMA models for deaths, with a projection horizon of 2025–2030. Model quality was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R²) and residual diagnostics (Ljung–Box test).

Results. In Kazakhstan, from 2020 to 2024, the number of births declined by 14.25 % (from 426,726 to 365,923), the number of deaths decreased by 17.42 % (from 160,962 to 132,916), resulting in a 12.33 % reduction in natural population increase (from 265,764 to 233,007). In Almaty, the number of births decreased by 3.34 % and the number of deaths by 15.55 %, while the natural population increase rose by 4.98 % to 22,196, reflecting a relatively more stable demographic situation.

Forecast estimates indicate a further decline in the number of births in Kazakhstan – from 347.1 thousand in 2025 to 249.5 thousand by 2030 – with relatively stable mortality, leading to a reduction in natural increase to 105.0 thousand. In Almaty, moderate growth in births (from 35.2 to 39.2 thousand) alongside stable deaths is expected to increase the natural population growth to 26.9 thousand.

Conclusions. Divergent demographic trajectories were identified: increasing demographic pressure at the national level and relative stability in the metropolis. Forecast estimates should be interpreted cautiously, given the inertial nature of time-series models and the lack of external demographic and socio-economic determinants in the projections.

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